Brandon Jennings has the Bucks winning this series in six games. I don’t have a problem with it as how was he supposed to answer that question? The only chance the Bucks really have of winning this series is to play very physical basketball inside and they have the horses to do that with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova, Larry Sanders, Samuel Dalembert, John Henson, Ekpe Udoh and Gustavo Ayon. Here is a look at the matchups in this series:
POINT GUARD: 26-year old Mario Chalmers really stepped up in the playoffs last year and they hope he will again in 2012-13. He played in 80 games (all starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 26.9 minutes, 8.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He has played in 56 games (31 starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 30.2 minutes, 9.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game.
23-year old Brandon Jennings is a volume shooter, but he gets hot, he’s very hard to stop. Jennings played in 80 games (all starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 36.2 minutes, 17.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.6 steals per game. He has played in 7 games (all starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 35.6 minutes, 18.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game.
EDGE: BUCKS
SHOOTING GUARD: 31-year old Dwyane Wade really steps up when the games get bigger, and I look for that to continue in this series. D-Wade played in 69 games (all starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 34.7 minutes, 21.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He has now played in 110 games (all starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 40.3 minutes, 25.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocked shots per game.
27-year old Monta Ellis is also a darn good basketball player and he could give D-Wade some fits. He played in 82 games (all starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 37.5 minutes, 19.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals per game. Ellis has played in 11 games (6 starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 21.6 minutes, 8.0 points, 2.3 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game.
EDGE: HEAT
SMALL FORWARD: 34-year old Shane Battier is a sharp shooter for the Heat, and he also plays solid D. Battier played in 72 games (20 starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 24.8 minutes, 6.6 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.0 assist per game. He has played in 74 games (50 starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 32.9 minutes, 7.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game.
26-year old Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s game is defense. He played in 58 games (45 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 22.9 minutes, 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game. He has played in 7 games (all starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 25.4 minutes, 9.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 0.7 assists per game.
EDGE: VERY, VERY SLIGHT FOR THE BUCKS
POWER FORWARD: 28-year old LeBron James is the best player on the planet right now. He played in 76 games (all starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 37.9 minutes, 26.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 1.7 steals per game. He has now played in 115 games (all starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 43.4 minutes, 28.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.7 steals per game.
25-year old Ersan Ilyasova has a bruised wrist, but he is ready to go for this series. He played in 73 games (54 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 27.6 minutes, 13.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Ilyasova has played in 7 games (0 starts) so far in the playoffs in his NBA career and he is averaging 22.4 minutes, 9.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 0.4 assists per game.
EDGE: HUGE FOR THE HEAT
CENTER: 29-year old Chris Bosh will be the starting center in this series for the Heat. He played in 74 games (all starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 33.2 minutes, 16.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.4 blocked shots per game. Bosh has now played in 46 games (42 starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 36.8 minutes, 17.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.0 blocked shot per game.
24-year old center Larry Sanders is going to try to push Bosh around and protect the rim in this series. He played in 71 games (55 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 27.3 minutes, 9.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 2.8 blocked shots per game. This is Sanders first shot at playing in the playoffs in his NBA career.
EDGE: HEAT
BENCH: The Heat’s bench is very old outside of Norris Cole, but they are still good at what they do. 37-year old shooting guard Ray Allen is one of the sharp shooters off the bench for the Heat. He played in 79 games (0 starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 25.8 minutes, 10.9 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. He has now played in 128 games (120 starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 38.8 minutes, 18.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 steals per game. 24-year old point guard Norris Cole will also likely get in on the action quite a bit in this series. Cole played in 80 games (4 starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 19.9 minutes, 5.6 points, 1.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. He has played in 19 games (0 starts) so far in the playoffs in his career and he is averaging 8.9 minutes, 1.8 points, 0.5 rebounds and 0.6 assists per game. 32-year old power forward Udonis Haslem will bring his lunch pail to work in this series, as he likes doing the dirty work for the Heat. He played in 75 games (59 starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 18.9 minutes, 3.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game. He has now played in 100 games (59 starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 25.8 minutes, 6.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 0.7 assists per game. 34-year old PF/C Chris “The Birdman” Andersen brings a lot of energy to the court for the Heat. He played in 42 games (0 starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 14.9 minutes, 4.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 0.4 assists and 1.0 blocked shot per game. Andersen has now played in 31 games (0 starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 17.8 minutes, 5.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.5 assists and 1.5 blocked shots per game. 33-year old SG/SF Mike Miller and 33-year old forward Rashard Lewis are going to be long range assassins for the Heat off the bench in the playoffs. Miller played in 59 games (17 starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 15.3 minutes, 4.8 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. He has played in 61 games (14 starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 17.7 minutes, 5.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.0 assist per game. Lewis played in 55 games (9 starts) for the Heat this year and he averaged 14.4 minutes, 5.2 points, 2.2 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game. He has played in 64 games (63 starts) so far in his career in the playoffs and he is averaging 38.5 minutes, 16.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game.
The Bucks also have a very talented bench. 28-year old guard J.J. Redick is going to supply some offensive fire power off the bench for the Bucks in this series. He played in 78 games (13 starts) for the Bucks and Magic this year and he averaged 30.5 minutes, 14.1 points, 2.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. Redick has played in 44 games (8 starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 19.5 minutes, 6.8 points, 1.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. 32-year old small forward Mike Dunleavy is also an offensive force off the bench for the Bucks. He played in 75 games (3 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 25.9 minutes, 10.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Dunleavy also shot a very impressive 42.8% from three point range this year. He has played in 5 games (0 starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 14.4 minutes, 5.0 points, 1.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. 31-year old center Samuel Dalembert could give the Heat trouble because of his size. He played in 47 games (23 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 16.3 minutes, 6.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 0.4 assists and 1.1 blocked shots per game. He has played in 17 games (all starts) in the playoffs so far in his career and he is averaging 30.5 minutes, 8.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, 0.5 assists and 1.5 blocked shots per game. 22-year old rookie power forward John Henson was incredible down the stretch for the Bucks, so they might as well turn him loose in this series against the Heat. He played in 63 games (9 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 13.1 minutes, 6.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 0.5 assists per game. 32-year old SG/SF Marquis Daniels played in 59 games (33 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 18.4 minutes, 5.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game. He has played in 62 games (5 starts) in the playoffs so far in his NBA career and he is averaging 11.3 minutes, 4.3 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.0 assist per game. 25-year old PF Ekpe Udoh and 28-year old PF/C Gustavo Ayon both have six fouls apiece to give if the Bucks want to play a little bit dirty in this series. Udoh played in 76 games (9 starts) for the Bucks this year and he averaged 17.3 minutes, 4.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 0.6 assists per game. Ayon played in 55 games (3 starts) for the Bucks and Magic this year and he averaged 13.3 minutes, 3.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Udoh and Ayon will be playing in the playoffs for the first time this year.
EDGE: EVEN
COACHING: 42-year old Erik Spoelstra just has to manage egos on this team. He led the Heat to a 66-16 (80.5%) record during the regular season. He is 34-22 (60.7%) in the playoffs so far in his career and he led the Heat to an NBA Title in 2011-12.
57-year old Jim Boylan replaced Scott Skiles when he was fired early in the year. Boylan was 22-28 (44%) with the Bucks this year. This is Boylan’s first foray into the playoffs as a head coach in the NBA.
EDGE: HEAT
PREDICTION: HEAT IN FIVE GAMES